Druckenmiller Strategy Synthesizer
Purpose
Synthesize outputs from 8 upstream analysis skills (5 required + 3 optional) into a single composite conviction score (0-100), classify the market into one of 4 Druckenmiller patterns, and generate actionable allocation recommendations. This is a meta-skill that consumes structured JSON outputs from other skills — it requires no API keys of its own.
When to Use This Skill
English:
- User asks "What's my overall conviction?" or "How should I be positioned?"
- User wants a unified view synthesizing breadth, uptrend, top risk, macro, and FTD signals
- User asks about Druckenmiller-style portfolio positioning
- User requests strategy synthesis after running individual analysis skills
- User asks "Should I increase or decrease exposure?"
- User wants pattern classification (policy pivot, distortion, contrarian, wait)
Japanese:
- 「総合的な市場判断は？」「今のポジショニングは？」
- ブレッドス、アップトレンド、天井リスク、マクロの統合判断
- 「エクスポージャーを増やすべき？減らすべき？」
- 「ドラッケンミラー分析を実行して」
- 個別スキル実行後の戦略統合レポート
Input Requirements
Required Skills (5)
| # |
Skill |
JSON Prefix |
Role |
| 1 |
Market Breadth Analyzer |
market_breadth_ |
Market participation breadth |
| 2 |
Uptrend Analyzer |
uptrend_analysis_ |
Sector uptrend ratios |
| 3 |
Market Top Detector |
market_top_ |
Distribution / top risk (defense) |
| 4 |
Macro Regime Detector |
macro_regime_ |
Macro regime transition (1-2Y structure) |
| 5 |
FTD Detector |
ftd_detector_ |
Bottom confirmation / re-entry (offense) |
Optional Skills (3)
| # |
Skill |
JSON Prefix |
Role |
| 6 |
VCP Screener |
vcp_screener_ |
Momentum stock setups (VCP) |
| 7 |
Theme Detector |
theme_detector_ |
Theme / sector momentum |
| 8 |
CANSLIM Screener |
canslim_screener_ |
Growth stock setups + M(Market Direction) |
Run the required skills first. The synthesizer reads their JSON output from reports/.
Execution Workflow
Phase 1: Verify Prerequisites
Check that the 5 required skill JSON reports exist in reports/ and are recent (< 72 hours). If any are missing, run the corresponding skill first.
Phase 2: Execute Strategy Synthesizer
python3 skills/stanley-druckenmiller-investment/scripts/strategy_synthesizer.py \
--reports-dir reports/ \
--output-dir reports/ \
--max-age 72
The script will:
- Load and validate all upstream skill JSON reports
- Extract normalized signals from each skill
- Calculate 7 component scores (weighted 0-100)
- Compute composite conviction score
- Classify into one of 4 Druckenmiller patterns
- Generate target allocation and position sizing
- Output JSON and Markdown reports
Phase 3: Present Results
Present the generated Markdown report, highlighting:
- Conviction score and zone
- Detected pattern and match strength
- Strongest and weakest components
- Target allocation (equity/bonds/alternatives/cash)
- Position sizing parameters
- Relevant Druckenmiller principle
Phase 4: Provide Druckenmiller Context
Load appropriate reference documents to provide philosophical context:
- High conviction: Emphasize concentration and "fat pitch" principles
- Low conviction: Emphasize capital preservation and patience
- Pattern-specific: Apply relevant case study from
references/case-studies.md
7-Component Scoring System
| # |
Component |
Weight |
Source Skill(s) |
Key Signal |
| 1 |
Market Structure |
18% |
Breadth + Uptrend |
Market participation health |
| 2 |
Distribution Risk |
18% |
Market Top (inverted) |
Institutional selling risk |
| 3 |
Bottom Confirmation |
12% |
FTD Detector |
Re-entry signal after correction |
| 4 |
Macro Alignment |
18% |
Macro Regime |
Regime favorability |
| 5 |
Theme Quality |
12% |
Theme Detector |
Sector momentum health |
| 6 |
Setup Availability |
10% |
VCP + CANSLIM |
Quality stock setups |
| 7 |
Signal Convergence |
12% |
All 5 required |
Cross-skill agreement |
4 Pattern Classifications
| Pattern |
Trigger Conditions |
Druckenmiller Principle |
| Policy Pivot Anticipation |
Transitional regime + high transition probability |
"Focus on central banks and liquidity" |
| Unsustainable Distortion |
Top risk >= 60 + contraction/inflationary regime |
"How much you lose when wrong matters most" |
| Extreme Sentiment Contrarian |
FTD confirmed + high top risk + bearish breadth |
"Most money made in bear markets" |
| Wait & Observe |
Low conviction + mixed signals (default) |
"When you don't see it, don't swing" |
Conviction Zone Mapping
| Score |
Zone |
Exposure |
Guidance |
| 80-100 |
Maximum Conviction |
90-100% |
Fat pitch - swing hard |
| 60-79 |
High Conviction |
70-90% |
Standard risk management |
| 40-59 |
Moderate Conviction |
50-70% |
Reduce position sizes |
| 20-39 |
Low Conviction |
20-50% |
Preserve capital, minimal risk |
| 0-19 |
Capital Preservation |
0-20% |
Maximum defense |
Output Files
druckenmiller_strategy_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.json — Structured analysis datadruckenmiller_strategy_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.md — Human-readable report
API Requirements
None. This skill reads JSON outputs from other skills. No API keys required.
Reference Documents
references/investment-philosophy.md
- Core Druckenmiller principles: concentration, capital preservation, 18-month horizon
- Quantitative rules: daily vol targets, max position sizing
- Load when providing philosophical context for conviction assessment
references/market-analysis-guide.md
- Signal-to-action mapping framework
- Macro regime interpretation for allocation decisions
- Load when explaining component scores or allocation rationale
references/case-studies.md
- Historical examples: 1992 GBP, 2000 tech bubble, 2008 crisis
- Pattern classification examples with actual market conditions
- Load when user asks about historical parallels
references/conviction_matrix.md
- Quantitative signal-to-action mapping tables
- Market Top Zone x Macro Regime matrix
- Load when user needs precise exposure numbers for specific signal combinations
When to Load References
- First use: Load
investment-philosophy.md for framework understanding
- Allocation questions: Load
market-analysis-guide.md + conviction_matrix.md
- Historical context: Load
case-studies.md
- Regular execution: References not needed — script handles scoring
Relationship to Other Skills
| Skill |
Relationship |
Time Horizon |
| Market Breadth Analyzer |
Input (required) |
Current snapshot |
| Uptrend Analyzer |
Input (required) |
Current snapshot |
| Market Top Detector |
Input (required) |
2-8 weeks tactical |
| Macro Regime Detector |
Input (required) |
1-2 years structural |
| FTD Detector |
Input (required) |
Days-weeks event |
| VCP Screener |
Input (optional) |
Setup-specific |
| Theme Detector |
Input (optional) |
Weeks-months thematic |
| CANSLIM Screener |
Input (optional) |
Setup-specific |
| This Skill |
Synthesizer |
Unified conviction |
