XAUUSD LLM Scalping Analysis

Skill for small account scalping with tight stop losses (~5 points / $5).

Philosophy

You ARE the analyst. Your PRIMARY decision tool is price structure — where price is relative to support, resistance, swing points, and key levels.

Indicators (RSI, MACD, Stoch, etc.) are context only — they confirm or deny what structure is telling you. Never take a trade purely because an indicator says so. Structure first, indicators second, TradingView rating last.

Your priority stack:

1. Price structure (where is price relative to levels?)
2. Candle patterns (rejection wicks, engulfing, momentum)
3. Indicator confluence (do RSI/MACD/Stoch agree with structure?)
4. TradingView signal rating (treat as a secondary opinion, not gospel)

Quick Start - Fetch Data

1. Real-time price + indicators (TradingView - NO DELAY)

bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_price.sh

Returns live price, current candle OHLC, RSI, MACD, Stoch, ADX, CCI, EMA, BB, ATR on 5m/15m/1h timeframes. Use for current snapshot and indicator context.

2. Real-time candle history (Twelve Data - NO DELAY)

# Requires: export TWELVE_DATA_API_KEY="your_key"
# Get free key: https://twelvedata.com (800 requests/day, free forever)

# 5-minute candles (primary for scalping)
bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 5min 30

# 15-minute candles (for trend/structure)
bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 15min 20

# 1-minute candles (for micro entries)
bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 1min 40

Returns last N candles with OHLC — real-time, no delay. Use for structure analysis: swing highs/lows, support/resistance, patterns.

Intervals: 1min, 5min, 15min, 30min, 1h, 4h, 1day

3. Fallback candle history (Yahoo Finance - ~15-20min delay, NO key needed)

bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_gold.sh 5m 1d 50

Only use if Twelve Data key is not set. Data is delayed ~15-20 minutes.

Analysis Workflow

1. Run fetch_price.sh → get live price + indicators snapshot
2. Run fetch_candles.sh 5min 30 → get real-time candle structure (swing points, patterns)
3. Optionally run fetch_candles.sh 15min 20 → for higher timeframe trend
4. Analyze → structure first, indicators as context
5. Output signal → with checklist, levels, and probabilities

Scalping Analysis Framework (5-Point Stop Loss)

1. IDENTIFY MICRO STRUCTURE

With only 5 points of risk, you need PRECISE entries:

• Find the immediate swing high/low (last 5-10 candles)
• Identify micro support/resistance levels
• Look for tight consolidation ranges (< 10 points)

2. ENTRY TIMING CRITERIA

Only signal when:

• Price is AT a clear level (not in the middle of a range)
• Recent candle shows rejection wick or engulfing pattern
• Stop loss placement is LOGICAL (behind structure, not arbitrary)

3. CALCULATE EXACT LEVELS

For every signal, specify:

Entry: [exact price]
Stop Loss: [entry ± 5 points]
Take Profit: [minimum 1:1.5 R:R = 7.5 points]

4. MOMENTUM CHECK

On 5m chart, confirm:

• Last 3-5 candles show directional bias
• No major wick rejections against your direction
• Volume/candle size increasing in your direction

5. EXTREME INDICATOR READINGS (High-Probability Triggers)

These extreme readings often precede reversals — use them as entry confirmations:

Indicator	Extreme LONG Zone	Extreme SHORT Zone
Stochastic K	< 10	> 90
CCI	< -100	> +100
RSI	< 30	> 70

When multiple indicators are extreme simultaneously, bounce probability increases significantly.

Example from real session: Stoch K hit 7.2 with CCI at -92 → price bounced 12+ points.

Hard "NO TRADE" Gates

Before generating any signal, check these. Gates marked HARD = must skip. Gates marked SOFT = warn but can still trade.

HARD Gate 1: Volatility Filter

• If 5m ATR > 8 points → SKIP (your 5-point SL is noise in this volatility)
• If 15m ATR > 20 points → SKIP (market too wild for scalping)

HARD Gate 2: News Event Filter

Do NOT trade during or 15 minutes before/after these events:

• US: CPI, NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls), FOMC rate decisions, PCE, PPI
• Global: ECB/BOE/BOJ rate decisions, geopolitical shocks
• Gold can move 30-50+ points in seconds during these events. A 5-point SL is meaningless.

If you're unsure whether a news event is happening, add a warning: "Check economic calendar before entering."

HARD Gate 3: Script Failure

• If fetch_price.sh returns an error or "Market may be closed" → NO TRADE
• If data looks stale (price hasn't changed in multiple fetches) → NO TRADE

SOFT Gate 4: Spread/Slippage Cost Awareness

Gold spread is typically 2-3 points, plus ~1 point slippage on entries.

Your REAL risk per trade:

Effective SL = 5 (your SL) + 2-3 (spread) + 1 (slippage) = 8-9 points total cost
Effective TP1 = 5 (your TP) - 2-3 (spread) = 2-3 points net gain
Effective TP2 = 10 (your TP) - 2-3 (spread) = 7-8 points net gain

Always mention this in your analysis, but still suggest the trade if structure looks good.

HARD Gate 5: Rollover Period (21:00-22:00 UTC)

• DO NOT TRADE during 21:00-22:00 UTC (daily rollover/swap time)
• Stop hunts are extremely common during this window — market makers sweep liquidity before the new session
• If you must trade during rollover, use minimum 8-point SL (not 5) to survive the wicks
• This gate was upgraded from SOFT to HARD based on real session experience where two consecutive 5-pt SLs were hunted during rollover

SOFT Gate 6: Session Timing

• Best: London-NY overlap (13:00-17:00 UTC) — tightest spreads, best liquidity
• OK: London session (08:00-12:00 UTC), NY session (13:00-21:00 UTC)
• Warn but allow: Asian session (wider spreads, note it)

Signal Output Format

## XAUUSD SCALP SIGNAL

**Action**: 🟢 BUY (Long) / 🔴 SELL (Short) / ⚪ NO TRADE
**Confidence**: [High / Medium / Low]

### Levels
- Current Price: $XXXX.XX
- Entry Zone: $XXXX.XX - $XXXX.XX
- Stop Loss: $XXXX.XX (5 points risk)
- Take Profit 1: $XXXX.XX (+5 points)
- Take Profit 2: $XXXX.XX (+10 points)

### Win Probability & Scenarios

**IMPORTANT**: These probabilities are HEURISTIC — educated guesses based on structure, not statistical models. Be honest but not paralyzed.

**Probability guidelines**:
- Use ranges: "35-45%", not "42%"
- Cap at 70% max for any single outcome
- If SL probability > TP1 probability by a wide margin → SKIP
- If everything is 33/33/33 → lean toward the direction momentum supports

Estimate how likely each outcome is based on the current structure:

| Scenario | Target | Gross Pts | Net After Spread (~3pts) | Est. Probability |
|----------|--------|-----------|--------------------------|-----------------|
| SL Hit | $XXXX | -5 | -8 (SL + spread + slip) | XX-XX% |
| TP1 Hit | $XXXX | +5 | +2 to +3 | XX-XX% |
| TP2 Hit | $XXXX | +10 | +7 to +8 | XX-XX% |

**Expected Value (cost-adjusted)**:
- TP1 play: (TP1% x net_TP1) - (SL% x net_SL) = $X.XX
- TP2 play: (TP2% x net_TP2) - (SL% x net_SL) = $X.XX

**Verdict**: [WORTH TAKING / MARGINAL / SKIP]

The goal is to help the user DECIDE, not to block all trades. If a setup has any structural edge at all, present it with honest probabilities and let the user judge.

### Pre-Signal Checklist

Answer these. Flag any "No" items as risks, but still suggest the trade if the overall picture has an edge.

| # | Check | Answer |
|---|-------|--------|
| 1 | Is price near a clear level? | Yes/No |
| 2 | Is 5m ATR reasonable (≤ 8)? | Yes/No |
| 3 | Is there a candle pattern or momentum confirming? | Yes/No |
| 4 | Does higher timeframe direction agree? | Yes/No |
| 5 | Is SL behind some structure? | Yes/No |
| 6 | No major news event right now? | Yes/No |

**Trade if**: Majority are "Yes" and #2 + #6 pass. Flag any "No" as a risk factor.

### Structure Analysis
[What micro structure you see - support/resistance, swing points]

### Entry Trigger
[Specific condition to enter - e.g., "break above 5032", "rejection candle at 5025"]

### Reasoning
[2-3 sentences on why this setup works]

### Risk Warning
This is LLM-based analysis for testing only. Not financial advice.

What to Look For (5m Chart)

🟢 BUY (Long) Setups

1. Support Bounce: Price touches recent low, forms rejection wick up
2. Breakout Pullback: Breaks resistance, pulls back to retest, holds
3. Higher Low: Creates higher low after swing up, momentum continuing
4. Stop Hunt Reversal (High Probability): Price makes a sharp wick that sweeps previous lows by 3-5+ pts, then V-recovers. Enter LONG after candle closes back above the swept level. SL below wick (6-8 pts). Key signal: Stochastic K < 10 during wick = extreme oversold, high bounce probability.

🔴 SELL (Short) Setups

1. Resistance Rejection: Price hits recent high, rejection wick down
2. Breakdown Retest: Breaks support, pulls back to retest, rejected
3. Lower High: Creates lower high after swing down, momentum continuing
4. Stop Hunt Reversal (High Probability): Price makes a sharp wick that sweeps previous highs by 3-5+ pts, then V-reverses down. Enter SHORT after candle closes back below the swept level. SL above wick (6-8 pts). Key signal: Stochastic K > 90 during wick = extreme overbought.

⚪ NO TRADE Conditions

• Price in middle of range (no clear level nearby)
• Choppy/whipsaw action (alternating direction candles)
• Wide spread candles (volatility too high)
• Near session open/close (unpredictable)

Example Analysis Process

1. Fetch real-time indicators:

bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_price.sh

2. Fetch real-time candle history (for structure):

bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 5min 30

3. Analyze: Use candles to find swing points, support/resistance. Use indicators to confirm direction. Apply the Analysis Framework.

4. Generate signal with exact levels based on live price

Multi-Timeframe (Optional)

For higher confidence, fetch multiple timeframes:

bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_price.sh
bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 15min 20
bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 5min 30

Rule: Only take 5m signals that ALIGN with 15m direction.

Important Notes

1. LLM is NOT predictive - You are doing opinionated pattern reading, not forecasting. Scalping with tight SLs has high failure rates even among experienced human traders.
2. Small account = strict risk - Never risk more than 1-2% of account per trade
3. 5 points is TIGHT - After spread+slippage, your real risk is ~8 points. Be extremely selective — most of the time the correct signal is NO TRADE.
4. Spread eats your edge - With ~3pt spread, your TP1 of +5pts nets only +2-3pts. You need high win rates or bigger TP2 plays.
5. Session timing - Best: London-NY overlap (13:00-17:00 UTC). Avoid Asian session and rollover.
6. News kills scalpers - A single CPI print can move gold 40 points in 1 second. Check calendar.
7. This is experimental - For paper trading and learning ONLY until you have evidence it works.

Trade Management (Once in a Position)

Breakeven Rule

• When trade reaches +2.5 to +3 pts profit, move SL to breakeven (entry price)
• This creates a "risk-free" trade — worst case you exit at 0, not -5
• Especially important after experiencing stop hunts earlier in the session

Trailing Stop Option

• After hitting +5 pts, consider trailing SL to +2 pts (lock in some profit)
• Or hold for TP2 with breakeven SL if momentum is strong

Session Loss Limit

• After 2 consecutive losses (-10 pts total), STOP trading for the session
• Emotional state after losses leads to revenge trading and poor decisions
• Exception: If you identify a clear stop hunt reversal pattern, one more attempt is acceptable with WIDER SL (6-8 pts instead of 5)

Recovery After Losses

• If you continue after losses, widen your SL to 6-8 pts
• Stop hunts often come in clusters during low-liquidity periods
• Accept that you're trading with worse R:R but better survival odds

Trading Experience Log

Use this section as a running journal. Each time the user asks, append a new entry based on the actual trade outcome.

How to log each trade

For every completed trade, add one block using this template:

### Trade #N - YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM UTC
- Session: [London / NY / Overlap / Asian]
- Direction: [BUY / SELL]
- Setup Type: [Support Bounce / Resistance Rejection / Breakout Pullback / Stop Hunt Reversal / Other]
- Entry: [price]
- Stop Loss: [price] (5 points)
- TP1 / TP2: [price] / [price]
- Outcome: [TP1 / TP2 / SL / Manual Exit]
- Net Result (points): [+X / -X]
- Key Context: [ATR, spread estimate, news status, market condition]
- What Worked: [1-2 bullets]
- What Failed: [1-2 bullets]
- Lesson: [single sentence]

Weekly review (every 10-20 trades)

After enough entries, add a summary block:

### Weekly Review - YYYY-MM-DD
- Total Trades: X
- Wins: X | Losses: X | Win Rate: XX%
- Avg Win (pts): X.X | Avg Loss (pts): X.X
- Best Setup Type: [name + stats]
- Worst Setup Type: [name + stats]
- Most Common Mistake: [one line]
- Rule Adjustment: [one concrete rule to keep/change]

Rule: Experience log is for factual outcomes and lessons only. Do not rewrite past entries.

Setup

1. Get a free Twelve Data API key: https://twelvedata.com/pricing (10 seconds, free forever, 800 req/day)
2. Set it: export TWELVE_DATA_API_KEY="your_key"
3. Test: bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 5min 10

File Structure

xauusd-trading/
├── SKILL.md              # This file
└── scripts/
    ├── fetch_price.sh    # REAL-TIME price + indicators (TradingView, no key)
    ├── fetch_candles.sh  # REAL-TIME candle history (Twelve Data, free key)
    └── fetch_gold.sh     # Fallback candles (Yahoo Finance, delayed, no key)

Continuous Monitoring Mode

When asked to monitor XAUUSD for scalping opportunities, use this workflow:

Monitor Loop Execution Rules (CRITICAL)

This is an INFINITE loop. You MUST continue until user explicitly says "stop", "exit", or "pause".

State	Action After Analysis
NEUTRAL	sleep 120 → fetch again → DO NOT STOP
WATCHING	sleep 60 → fetch again → DO NOT STOP
CONSOLIDATING	sleep 90 → fetch again → DO NOT STOP
SIGNAL	Output signal → STOP and wait for user

HARD RULES:

• After NEUTRAL, WATCHING, or CONSOLIDATING → execute sleep → immediately fetch new data
• Do NOT say "let me know if you want me to continue" — just continue<